K.Karthik Raja - Rupeedesk Advisory: FMCG Stocks Outlook

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FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week – 18 to 22.08.2014

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Stocks of fast moving consumer goods companies are seen trading with a positive bias in

the week ahead as a study of the Apr-Jun earnings shows that most companies in the

sector have posted a marginal recovery in sales volumes.

Most companies have shown a marginal recover in sales volumes in Apr-Jun, this is

despite the poor economic sentiment and delayed monsoon that the quarter witnessed.

This is a sign that volume growth may bounce back this year.

Stocks of Marico, Dabur and Hindustan Unilever on bullish trend. An industry expert

with a consulting firm explained that Hindustan Unilever being the biggest company in

the sector would be the largest beneficiary of a recovery in demand.

"HUL has a range of products that straddle the entire demand pyramid, it will benefit

from a revival in rural as well as urban demand, its efforts to increase its rural reach over the last two years will bear fruit now," said the industry expert.

FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week – 11 to 14.08.2014

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Stocks of fast moving consumer goods companies are seen trading with a positive bias in

the week ahead as investors are likely to turn to defensive stocks in a volatile market

environment. A narrowing monsoon deficit is also aiding the positive sentiment towards

the sector. This week, the BSE FMCG stocks index inched up 0.15% against a 0.45% fall

in the Sensex.

Given the geo-political tensions in Ukraine and West Asia, it is very likely that investors

will turn to safe sectors like pharma and FMCG that itself will improve their

performance, but even fundamentally good rains will help.

Bullish on FMCG stocks, technically we will expect most stocks in the sector to remain range-bound in the week ahead.

FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week – 11 to 14.08.2014

( www.rupeedesk.in )

Stocks of fast moving consumer goods companies are seen trading with a positive bias in

the week ahead as investors are likely to turn to defensive stocks in a volatile market

environment. A narrowing monsoon deficit is also aiding the positive sentiment towards

the sector. This week, the BSE FMCG stocks index inched up 0.15% against a 0.45% fall

in the Sensex.

Given the geo-political tensions in Ukraine and West Asia, it is very likely that investors

will turn to safe sectors like pharma and FMCG that itself will improve their

performance, but even fundamentally good rains will help.

Bullish on FMCG stocks, technically we will expect most stocks in the sector to remain range-bound in the week ahead.

FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week – 07 to 11.Jul.2014

FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week – 07 to 11.Jul.2014

The Union Budget for 2014-15 (Apr-Mar) to be presented on Jul 10 is likely to decide the
course of fast moving consumer goods companies' stocks next week. The FMCG stocks will
largely move according to the expectations before the Budget and on the announcement
thereon. It will toe the line of broader market, in case there are no sector-specific triggers
before the budget. In the broader market, we expect the National Stock Exchange's Nifty to
test the 8000-mark in the run up to the Budget. Any major negative surprise that dents the
Street's Budget wish list may see indices witnessing some downward correction. However,
analysts do not see a steep fall or expect the indices to top out after the Budget.

Rumours of a steep hike in the excise duty on branded cigarettes are negative for ITC Ltd,
but much of it has been already factored in. Even if excise duty is hiked, it will not make
much difference as demand for cigarette is inelastic. Hindustan Unilever Ltd is likely to trade
range-bound and the stock is still positive. As Hindustan Unilever continues to reel from the
heat of keener competition in segments such as laundry, skin care and oral care, we expect
it to continue investing in these categories.

Chaturmotha is bullish on Emami Ltd as the stock is trading at all-time high and is further
expected to keep the momentum. For Jyothy Laboratories Ltd, the business outlook is good,
and Pancholi is positive on the stock for the near-term.

Mid-Market: Sensex in red; Oil&gas and FMCG stocks down 25/06/2014

Mid-Market: Sensex in red; Oil&gas and FMCG stocks down
25/06/2014 12:22
The Indian benchmark indices remained under stress in the afternoon session of the day’s trade as investors turned cautious and booked profits ahead of the budget session and F&O June expiry tomorrow. Further, weakness in index heavyweights including ITC, Reliance Industries, Bharti Airtel, ICICI Bank, Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd also weighed on market sentiments. However, the boarder market continued to hold its ground with moderate gains. Among the individual stocks, Bajaj Auto was trading higher by 2.65 per cent and was the top gainer among Sensex-30. On the sectoral front, Bankex, Capital Goods, Realty, Oil & Gas and FMCG indices were in red while IT, Auto, Consumer Durables and Metal indices were trading in green.

At 11:25 hours, the 30-share barometer index of Bombay Stock Exchange, Sensex was at 25329.67 down by 39.23 points or by 0.15 per cent and then NSE Nifty was at 7575.6 down by 4.6 points or by 0.06 per cent.

However, the broader market was moving above baseline. The BSE MIDCAP was at 9199.72 up by 38.54 points or by 0.42 per cent, while the BSE SMLCAP was at 10015.82 up by 38.11 points or by 0.38 per cent.

The market breadth, indicating the overall strength of the market, was positive. On BSE out of total shares traded 2766, shares advanced were 1456 while 1174 shares declined and 136 were unchanged.

The top losers of the BSE Sensex pack were Bharti Airtel Ltd. (Rs. 333.05,-2.32%), ITC Ltd. (Rs. 316.90,-1.09%), ICICI Bank Ltd. (Rs. 1423.00,-1.08%), Oil And Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. (Rs. 438.50,-1.05%), Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. (Rs. 2393.05,-0.94%), among others.

On the flip side, Bajaj Auto Ltd. (Rs. 2276.95,+2.54%), GAIL (India) Ltd. (Rs. 467.25,+1.65%), Coal India Ltd. (Rs. 397.70,+1.56%), Tata Power Company Ltd. (Rs. 104.95,+1.21%), Tata Motors Ltd. (Rs. 445.90,+0.85%), were among notable gainers on BSE.

Among the thirteen sectoral indices on BSE, oil&gas index was leading the fall and was trading lower at 11430.62 down by 86.21 points or by 0.75 per cent. Petronet LNG Ltd. (Rs. 180.75,-2.95%), Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd. (Rs. 413.00,-1.36%), Oil And Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. (Rs. 438.00,-1.16%), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd. (Rs. 575.70,-1.07%), Reliance Industries Ltd. (Rs. 1049.80,-0.93%), were among the notable losers on BSE.

Following the oil&gas index, BSE_FMCG index was at 6615.32 down by 27.45 points or by 0.41 per cent. ITC Ltd. (Rs. 316.80,-1.12%), Marico Ltd. (Rs. 235.00,-0.34%), Jubilant Foodworks Ltd. (Rs. 1305.00,-0.26%), Dabur India Ltd. (Rs. 185.95,-0.24%), were among the others dragging the market.

FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week – 23 to 27.06.2014

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Stocks of fast moving consumer goods companies are seen rangebound next week as a

weak monsoon has cast worries over farm output, and which is seen affecting rural sector

demand--a key driver of FMCG stocks. The BSE FMCG Index mirrored the prevailing

sentiment as it ended the week 0.39% lower against a 0.49% fall in the

Sensex. According to the India Meteorological Department, the monsoon rains so far till

Thursday were 42% below their normal. We expects most companies in the consumer

space to be hit by the slowdown, but has a bullish view on select stocks that could benefit

from likely price hikes.Bullish on ITC and Marico as it expects both companies to hike prices of products over

the next few weeks. Also has a positive view on home grown consumer major Jyothy

Laboratories. This week, Jubilant FoodWorks raised product prices and announced a new

range of pizzas.Fundamental continue to be bullish on United Spirits as demand in the

mid to premium spirits segment remains strong. Yesterday the stock ended 3% higher

from the previous close. On Thursday, the stock had fallen 8% as Diageo's open offer for

the company ended.

FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week – 09 to 13.Jun.2014

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Stocks of fast moving consumer goods companies are seen rising in the next few weeks

on demand revival due to a likely normal monsoon season. A normal monsoon will be the

biggest mood lifter in rural India. The slowdown faced by the companies in the subpremium

categories will mostly see revival in the quarter ahead. The Jan-Mar earnings of

FMCG companies indicated that revenue growth was driven by discretionary demand.

Aggregate revenue growth for 12 discretionary companies recovered to 14% YoY in 4Q

from 3% YoY in 3Q, a sign that the worst is behind. The growth pick-up is quite broad

based. Bullish on Titan Co and TTK Prestige in the consumer discretionary space, and on

ITC and Emami among consumer staple companies.

FMCG Stocks Outlook – 26 to 30.May.2014

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Stocks of fast-moving consumer goods companies are seen trading rangebound in the

week ahead as the market is likely to continue to focus on stocks that are likely to benefit

from a change in government regime. Most FMCG companies have come out with

average numbers, I do not see a runaway rally in consumer names until the monsoon

arrives. A normal monsoon may help to bring about the much needed demand revival.

Until then FMCG stocks will lie low.

While believe that it is only monsoon that could trigger the next rally, many industry

watchers are closely monitoring announcements from the new government on tax reform.

A clue on the implementation of the goods and service tax could provide a fundamental

fillip to the sector.A GST (Good and Service Tax) implementation plan by the new

government is a boost for all sectors of the economy, while it will benefit FMCG

companies, stock reaction will be muted at best.